What, exactly, is the alleged Iranian threat?
August 20, 2015
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Throughout
the world there is great relief and optimism about the nuclear deal
reached in Vienna between Iran and the P5+1 nations, the five
veto-holding members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany. Most of
the world apparently shares the assessment of the U.S. Arms Control
Association that “the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action establishes a
strong and effective formula for blocking all of the pathways by which
Iran could acquire material for nuclear weapons for more than a
generation and a verification system to promptly detect and deter
possible efforts by Iran to covertly pursue nuclear weapons that will
last indefinitely.”
There
are, however, striking exceptions to the general enthusiasm: the United
States and its closest regional allies, Israel and Saudi Arabia. One
consequence of this is that U.S. corporations, much to their chagrin,
are prevented from flocking to Tehran along with their European
counterparts. Prominent sectors of U.S. power and opinion share the
stand of the two regional allies and so are in a state of virtual
hysteria over “the Iranian threat.” Sober commentary in the United
States, pretty much across the spectrum, declares that country to be
“the gravest threat to world peace.” Even supporters of the agreement
here are wary, given the exceptional gravity of that threat. After all,
how can we trust the Iranians with their terrible record of aggression,
violence, disruption, and deceit?
Opposition within the political class is so strong that public opinion has shifted quickly from
significant support for the deal to an
even split.
Republicans are almost unanimously opposed to the agreement. The
current Republican primaries illustrate the proclaimed reasons. Senator
Ted Cruz, considered one of the intellectuals among the crowded field of
presidential candidates,
warns that
Iran may still be able to produce nuclear weapons and could someday use
one to set off an Electro Magnetic Pulse that “would take down the
electrical grid of the entire eastern seaboard” of the United States,
killing “tens of millions of Americans.”
The two most
likely winners, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Governor
Scott Walker, are battling over whether to bomb Iran
immediately after being elected or after the
first Cabinet meeting. The one candidate with some foreign policy experience, Lindsey Graham,
describesthe deal as “a death sentence for the state of Israel,” which will certainly come as a
surprise to Israeli
intelligence and strategic analysts -- and which Graham knows to be utter nonsense, raising immediate questions about actual motives.
Keep
in mind that the Republicans long ago abandoned the pretense of
functioning as a normal congressional party. They have, as respected
conservative political commentator Norman Ornstein of the right-wing
American Enterprise Institute
observed, become a “radical insurgency” that scarcely seeks to participate in normal congressional politics.
Since
the days of President Ronald Reagan, the party leadership has plunged
so far into the pockets of the very rich and the corporate sector that
they can attract votes only by mobilizing parts of the population that
have not previously been an organized political force. Among them are
extremist evangelical Christians, now probably a majority of Republican
voters; remnants of the former slave-holding states; nativists who are
terrified that “they” are taking our white Christian Anglo-Saxon country
away from us; and others who turn the Republican primaries into
spectacles remote from the mainstream of modern society -- though not
from the mainstream of the most powerful country in world history.
The
departure from global standards, however, goes far beyond the bounds of
the Republican radical insurgency. Across the spectrum, there is, for
instance, general agreement with the
“pragmatic” conclusion of
General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that the
Vienna deal does not “prevent the United States from striking Iranian
facilities if officials decide that it is cheating on the agreement,”
even though a unilateral military strike is “far less likely” if Iran
behaves.
Former Clinton and Obama Middle East negotiator
Dennis Ross typically recommends that “Iran must have no doubts that if
we see it moving towards a weapon, that would trigger the use of force”
even after the termination of the deal, when Iran is theoretically free
to do what it wants. In fact, the existence of a termination point 15
years hence is, he adds, "the greatest single problem with the
agreement." He also suggests that the U.S. provide Israel with
specially outfitted B-52 bombers and bunker-busting bombs to protect itself before that terrifying date arrives.
“The Greatest Threat”
Opponents of the nuclear deal charge that it does not go far enough. Some supporters agree,
holding that “if
the Vienna deal is to mean anything, the whole of the Middle East must
rid itself of weapons of mass destruction.” The author of those words,
Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Javad Zarif, added that “Iran, in its
national capacity and as current chairman of the Non-Aligned Movement
[the governments of the large majority of the world’s population], is
prepared to work with the international community to achieve these
goals, knowing full well that, along the way, it will probably run into
many hurdles raised by the skeptics of peace and diplomacy.” Iran has
signed “a historic nuclear deal,” he continues, and now it is the turn
of Israel, “the holdout.”
Israel, of course, is one of
the three nuclear powers, along with India and Pakistan, whose weapons
programs have been abetted by the United States and that refuse to sign
the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT).
Zarif was referring to
the regular five-year NPT review conference, which ended in failure in
April when the U.S. (joined by Canada and Great Britain) once again
blocked efforts to move toward a weapons-of-mass-destruction-free zone
in the Middle East. Such efforts have been led by Egypt and other Arab
states for 20 years. As Jayantha Dhanapala and Sergio Duarte, leading
figures in the promotion of such efforts at the NPT and other U.N.
agencies,
observe in
“Is There a Future for the NPT?,” an article in the journal of the Arms
Control Association: “The successful adoption in 1995 of the resolution
on the establishment of a zone free of weapons of mass destruction
(WMD) in the Middle East was the main element of a package that
permitted the indefinite extension of the NPT.” The NPT, in turn, is
the most important arms control treaty of all. If it were adhered to,
it could end the scourge of nuclear weapons.
Repeatedly,
implementation of the resolution has been blocked by the U.S., most
recently by President Obama in 2010 and again in 2015, as Dhanapala and
Duarte point out, “on behalf of a state that is not a party to the NPT
and is widely believed to be the only one in the region possessing
nuclear weapons” -- a polite and understated reference to Israel. This
failure, they hope, “will not be the coup de grâce to the two
longstanding NPT objectives of accelerated progress on nuclear
disarmament and establishing a Middle Eastern WMD-free zone.”
A
nuclear-weapons-free Middle East would be a straightforward way to
address whatever threat Iran allegedly poses, but a great deal more is
at stake in Washington’s continuing sabotage of the effort in order to
protect its Israeli client. After all, this is not the only case in
which opportunities to end the alleged Iranian threat have been
undermined by Washington, raising further questions about just what is
actually at stake.
In considering this matter, it is
instructive to examine both the unspoken assumptions in the situation
and the questions that are rarely asked. Let us consider a few of these
assumptions, beginning with the most serious: that Iran is the gravest
threat to world peace.
In the U.S., it is a virtual
cliché among high officials and commentators that Iran wins that grim
prize. There is also a world outside the U.S. and although its views
are not reported in the mainstream here, perhaps they are of some
interest. According to the leading western polling agencies (WIN/Gallup
International), the prize for “greatest threat” is
won by the
United States. The rest of the world regards it as the gravest threat
to world peace by a large margin. In second place, far below, is
Pakistan, its ranking probably inflated by the Indian vote. Iran is
ranked below those two, along with China, Israel, North Korea, and
Afghanistan.
“The World’s Leading Supporter of Terrorism”
Turning
to the next obvious question, what in fact is the Iranian threat? Why,
for example, are Israel and Saudi Arabia trembling in fear over that
country? Whatever the threat is, it can hardly be military. Years ago,
U.S. intelligence informed Congress that Iran has very low military
expenditures by the standards of the region and that its strategic
doctrines are defensive -- designed, that is, to deter aggression. The
U.S. intelligence community has also
reported that
it has no evidence Iran is pursuing an actual nuclear weapons program
and that “Iran’s nuclear program and its willingness to keep open the
possibility of developing nuclear weapons is a central part of its
deterrent strategy.”
The authoritative
SIPRI review of global armaments ranks the U.S., as usual, way
in the lead in
military expenditures. China comes in second with about one-third of
U.S. expenditures. Far below are Russia and Saudi Arabia, which are
nonetheless well above any western European state. Iran is
scarcely mentioned. Full details are provided in an
April report from
the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which finds
“a conclusive case that the Arab Gulf states have... an overwhelming
advantage of Iran in both military spending and access to modern arms.”
Iran’s
military spending, for instance, is a fraction of Saudi Arabia’s and
far below even the spending of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Altogether, the Gulf Cooperation Council states -- Bahrain, Kuwait,
Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE --
outspend Iran
on arms by a factor of eight, an imbalance that goes back decades. The
CSIS report adds: “The Arab Gulf states have acquired and are acquiring
some of the most advanced and effective weapons in the world [while]
Iran has essentially been forced to live in the past, often relying on
systems originally delivered at the time of the Shah.” In other words,
they are virtually obsolete. When it comes to Israel, of course, the
imbalance is even greater. Possessing the most advanced U.S. weaponry
and a virtual offshore military base for the global superpower, it also
has a huge stock of nuclear weapons.
To be sure, Israel
faces the “existential threat” of Iranian pronouncements: Supreme Leader
Khamenei and former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad famously threatened
it with destruction.
Except that
they didn’t --
and if they had, it would be of little moment. Ahmadinejad, for
instance, predicted that “under God’s grace [the Zionist regime] will be
wiped off the map.” In other words, he hoped that regime change would
someday take place. Even that falls far short of the direct calls in
both Washington and Tel Aviv for regime change in Iran, not to speak of
the actions taken to implement regime change. These, of course, go back
to the actual “regime change” of 1953, when the U.S. and Britain
organized a military coup to overthrow Iran’s parliamentary government
and install the dictatorship of the Shah, who proceeded to amass one of
the worst human rights records on the planet.
These
crimes were certainly known to readers of the reports of Amnesty
International and other human rights organizations, but not to readers
of the U.S. press, which has devoted plenty of space to Iranian human
rights violations -- but only since 1979 when the Shah’s regime was
overthrown. (To check the facts on this, read
The U.S. Press and Iran, a carefully documented study by Mansour Farhang and William Dorman.)
None
of this is a departure from the norm. The United States, as is well
known, holds the world championship title in regime change and Israel is
no laggard either. The most destructive of its invasions of Lebanon in
1982 was explicitly aimed at regime change, as well as at securing its
hold on the occupied territories. The pretexts offered were thin indeed
and collapsed at once. That, too, is not unusual and pretty much
independent of the nature of the society -- from the laments in the
Declaration of Independence about the “merciless Indian savages” to
Hitler’s defense of Germany from the “wild terror” of the Poles.
No
serious analyst believes that Iran would ever use, or even threaten to
use, a nuclear weapon if it had one, and so face instant destruction.
There is, however, real concern that a nuclear weapon might fall into
jihadi hands -- not thanks to Iran, but via U.S. ally Pakistan. In the
journal of the Royal Institute of International Affairs, two leading
Pakistani nuclear scientists, Pervez Hoodbhoy and Zia Mian,
write that
increasing fears of “militants seizing nuclear weapons or materials and
unleashing nuclear terrorism [have led to]... the creation of a
dedicated force of over 20,000 troops to guard nuclear facilities.
There is no reason to assume, however, that this force would be immune
to the problems associated with the units guarding regular military
facilities,” which have frequently suffered attacks with “insider help.”
In brief, the problem is real, just displaced to Iran thanks to
fantasies concocted for other reasons.
Other concerns
about the Iranian threat include its role as “the world’s leading
supporter of terrorism,” which primarily refers to its support for
Hezbollah and Hamas. Both of those movements emerged in resistance to
U.S.-backed Israeli violence and aggression, which vastly exceeds
anything attributed to these villains, let alone the normal practice of
the hegemonic power whose
global drone assassination campaign alone dominates (and helps to foster) international terrorism.
Those
two villainous Iranian clients also share the crime of winning the
popular vote in the only free elections in the Arab world. Hezbollah is
guilty of the even more heinous crime of compelling Israel to withdraw
from its occupation of southern Lebanon, which took place in violation
of U.N. Security Council orders dating back decades and involved an
illegal regime of terror and sometimes extreme violence. Whatever one
thinks of Hezbollah, Hamas, or other beneficiaries of Iranian support,
Iran hardly ranks high in support of terror worldwide.
“Fueling Instability”
Another concern,
voiced at
the U.N. by U.S. Ambassador Samantha Power, is the “instability that
Iran fuels beyond its nuclear program.” The U.S. will continue to
scrutinize this misbehavior, she declared. In that, she echoed the
assurance Defense Secretary Ashton Carter
offered while
standing on Israel’s northern border that “we will continue to help
Israel counter Iran’s malign influence” in supporting Hezbollah, and
that the U.S. reserves the right to use military force against Iran as
it deems appropriate.
The way Iran “fuels instability”
can be seen particularly dramatically in Iraq where, among other crimes,
it alone at once came to the aid of Kurds defending themselves from the
invasion of Islamic State militants, even as it is building a
$2.5 billion power plant in
the southern port city of Basra to try to bring electrical power back
to the level reached before the 2003 invasion. Ambassador Power’s usage
is, however, standard: Thanks to that invasion, hundreds of thousands
were killed and millions of refugees generated, barbarous acts of
torture were committed -- Iraqis have compared the destruction to the
Mongol invasion of the thirteenth century -- leaving Iraq the unhappiest
country in the world according to WIN/Gallup polls. Meanwhile,
sectarian conflict was ignited, tearing the region to shreds and laying
the basis for the creation of the monstrosity that is ISIS. And all of
that is called “stabilization.”
Only Iran’s shameful
actions, however, “fuel instability.” The standard usage sometimes
reaches levels that are almost surreal, as when liberal commentator
James Chace, former editor of Foreign Affairs,
explained that
the U.S. sought to “destabilize a freely elected Marxist government in
Chile” because “we were determined to seek stability” under the Pinochet
dictatorship.
Others are outraged that Washington should
negotiate at all with a “contemptible” regime like Iran’s with its
horrifying human rights record and urge instead that we pursue “an
American-sponsored alliance between Israel and the Sunni states.” So
writes Leon
Wieseltier, contributing editor to the venerable liberal journal
the Atlantic, who can barely conceal his visceral hatred for all things
Iranian. With a straight face, this respected liberal intellectual
recommends that Saudi Arabia, which makes Iran look like a virtual
paradise, and Israel, with its vicious crimes in Gaza and elsewhere,
should ally to teach that country good behavior. Perhaps the
recommendation is not entirely unreasonable when we consider the human
rights records of the regimes the U.S. has imposed and supported
throughout the world.
Though the Iranian government is no
doubt a threat to its own people, it regrettably breaks no records in
this regard, not descending to the level of favored U.S. allies. That,
however, cannot be the concern of Washington, and surely not Tel Aviv or
Riyadh.
It
might also be useful to recall -- surely Iranians do -- that not a day
has passed since 1953 in which the U.S. was not harming Iranians. After
all, as soon as they overthrew the hated U.S.-imposed regime of the Shah
in 1979, Washington put its support behind Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein,
who would, in 1980, launch a murderous assault on their country.
President Reagan went so far as to deny Saddam’s major crime, his
chemical warfare assault on Iraq’s Kurdish population, which he blamed
on Iran instead. When Saddam was tried for crimes under U.S. auspices,
that horrendous crime, as well as others in which the U.S. was
complicit, was carefully excluded from the charges, which were
restricted to one of his minor crimes, the murder of 148 Shi’ites in
1982, a footnote to his gruesome record.
Saddam was such a
valued friend of Washington that he was even granted a privilege
otherwise accorded only to Israel. In 1987, his forces were allowed to
attack a U.S. naval vessel, the USS Stark, with impunity, killing 37
crewmen. (Israel had acted similarly in its 1967 attack on the
USS Liberty.) Iran pretty much conceded defeat shortly after, when the
U.S. launched Operation Praying Mantis against Iranian ships and oil
platforms in Iranian territorial waters. That operation culminated when
the USS Vincennes, under no credible threat, shot down an Iranian
civilian airliner in Iranian airspace, with 290 killed -- and the
subsequent granting of a
Legion of Merit award to
the commander of the Vincennes for “exceptionally meritorious conduct”
and for maintaining a “calm and professional atmosphere” during the
period when the attack on the airliner took place.
Comments philosopher Thill Raghu, “We can only stand in awe of such display of American exceptionalism!”
After
the war ended, the U.S. continued to support Saddam Hussein, Iran’s
primary enemy. President George H.W. Bush even invited Iraqi nuclear
engineers to the U.S. for advanced training in weapons production, an
extremely serious threat to Iran. Sanctions against that country were
intensified, including against foreign firms dealing with it, and
actions were initiated to bar it from the international financial
system.
In recent years the hostility has extended to sabotage, the murder of nuclear scientists (presumably by
Israel), and
cyberwar,
openly proclaimed with pride. The Pentagon regards cyberwar as an act
of war, justifying a military response, as does NATO, which affirmed in
September 2014 that cyber attacks may trigger the collective defense
obligations of the NATO powers -- when we are the target that is, not
the perpetrators.
“The Prime Rogue State”
It
is only fair to add that there have been breaks in this pattern.
President George W. Bush, for example, offered several significant gifts
to Iran by destroying its major enemies, Saddam Hussein and the
Taliban. He even placed Iran’s Iraqi enemy under its influence after
the U.S. defeat, which was so severe that Washington had to abandon its
officially declared goals of establishing permanent military bases (“
enduring camps”) and
ensuring that U.S. corporations would have privileged access to Iraq’s vast oil resources.
Do
Iranian leaders intend to develop nuclear weapons today? We can decide
for ourselves how credible their denials are, but that they had such
intentions in the past is beyond question. After all, it was asserted
openly on the highest authority and foreign journalists were informed
that Iran would develop nuclear weapons “certainly, and sooner than one
thinks.” The father of Iran’s nuclear energy program and former head of
Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization was confident that the leadership’s
plan “was to build a nuclear bomb.” The CIA also reported that it had
“no doubt” Iran would develop nuclear weapons if neighboring countries
did (as they have).
All of this was, of course, under
the Shah, the “highest authority” just quoted and at a time when top
U.S. officials -- Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Henry Kissinger,
among others -- were urging him to proceed with his nuclear programs and
pressuring universities to accommodate these efforts. Under such
pressures, my own university, MIT, made a deal with the Shah to admit
Iranian students to the nuclear engineering program in return for grants
he offered and over the strong objections of the student body, but with
comparably strong faculty support (in a meeting that older faculty will
doubtless remember well).
Asked later why he supported
such programs under the Shah but opposed them more recently, Kissinger
responded honestly that Iran was an ally then.
Putting
aside absurdities, what is the real threat of Iran that inspires such
fear and fury? A natural place to turn for an answer is, again, U.S.
intelligence. Recall its analysis that Iran poses no military threat,
that its strategic doctrines are defensive, and that its nuclear
programs (with no effort to produce bombs, as far as can be determined)
are “a central part of its deterrent strategy.”
Who,
then, would be concerned by an Iranian deterrent? The answer is plain:
the rogue states that rampage in the region and do not want to tolerate
any impediment to their reliance on aggression and violence. In the
lead in this regard are the U.S. and Israel, with Saudi Arabia trying
its best to join the club with its invasion of Bahrain (to support the
crushing of a reform movement there) and now its murderous assault on
Yemen, accelerating a growing humanitarian catastrophe in that country.
For
the United States, the characterization is familiar. Fifteen years
ago, the prominent political analyst Samuel Huntington, professor of the
science of government at Harvard, warned in the establishment
journal Foreign Affairsthat for much of the world the U.S. was “becoming
the rogue superpower... the single greatest external threat to their
societies.” Shortly after, his words were
echoed by
Robert Jervis, the president of the American Political Science
Association: “In the eyes of much of the world, in fact, the prime rogue
state today is the United States.” As we have seen, global opinion
supports this judgment by a substantial margin.
Furthermore,
the mantle is worn with pride. That is the clear meaning of the
insistence of the political class that the U.S. reserves the right to
resort to force if it unilaterally determines that Iran is violating
some commitment. This policy is of long standing, especially for
liberal Democrats, and by no means restricted to Iran. The Clinton
Doctrine, for instance, confirmed that the U.S. was entitled to resort
to the “unilateral use of military power” even to ensure “uninhibited
access to key markets, energy supplies, and strategic resources,” let
alone alleged “security” or “humanitarian” concerns. Adherence to
various versions of this doctrine has been well confirmed in practice,
as need hardly be discussed among people willing to look at the facts of
current history.
These are among the critical matters
that should be the focus of attention in analyzing the nuclear deal at
Vienna, whether it stands or is sabotaged by Congress, as it may well
be.
Noam Chomsky is institute professor emeritus in the
Department of Linguistics and Philosophy at Massachusetts Institute of
Technology. A
TomDispatch regular,
among his recent books are Hegemony or Survival, Failed States, Power
Systems, Hopes and Prospects, and Masters of Mankind. Haymarket Books
recently reissued
twelve of his classic books in new editions. His website is
www.chomsky.info.
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Copyright 2015 Noam Chomsky
Noam Chomsky is a professor of linguistics and philosophy at MIT.