Finding meaningful patterns in climate

Between the mid-1600s and the early 1700s, European winter temperatures were reduced by 1.8 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit — and that difference was enough to routinely freeze canals solid in Holland, as well as lock up Greenland in ice. Rivers in Europe that were typically ice-free, froze over and inspired ‘Frost Fairs’ as well as activities like skating and even golf as seen here in“Sports on a Frozen River,”ca. 1660, by Aert van der Neer (Dutch, 1603/4–1677).

Photo by Tom Cogill

Environmental Sciences professor Michael Mann has used a variety of creative strategies to create a record that can function as a baseline for creating climate change models able to distinguish between ordinary oscillations in temperature and those produced by global warming. He has tapped the information contained in such natural archives as tree rings, ice cores and coral reefs.

By Charles Feigenoff
Predicting the weather a day at a time is hard enough. The problem that Michael
Mann, assistant professor of environmental sciences, has created for himself is even more difficult: to project the weather back year by year for a millennium and beyond. His interest is not simply historical, though Mann is clearly motivated in part by his curiosity about the past. Instead, his purpose is to create a record that is lengthy enough to function as a baseline for creating climate change models that can distinguish between ordinary oscillations in temperature and those produced by global warming.
Mann has had to use a variety of creative strategies to produce such a record. First of all, he has tapped the information contained in a variety of such natural archives as tree rings, ice cores and coral reefs. He also looks at anecdotal records found in old letters, books and other documents. The strategy of using different sources has many benefits. Most obviously, it helps Mann create an unbroken record that goes back 1,000 years. “We only use records where the chronology is exact,” he says.
This approach also helps compensate for the limitations inherent in each type of data. For instance, ice cores reflect temperatures only in arctic regions and higher elevations when snow fell. The layers of calcium carbonate found in coral reefs provide an indication of climate conditions that is limited to tropical seas. Tree rings are found everywhere except in tropical forests. The same limits can be seen in the historical record. For instance, most historical accounts of the “Little Ice Age,” a 400-year period from approximately 1450 to 1850, were produced by people living in Europe and eastern North America. Mounting evidence suggests that these observations do not reflect conditions elsewhere.

Climate change can occur regionally

Be glad you weren’t living on Greenland in the late 17th century. The island often was surrounded by ice and cut off from nearby lands. One example of climatologist Michael Mann’s research in patterns of climate change shows that only some regions were affected during the period known as the “Little Ice Age.” This resulted from a decrease in the sun’s activity, which occurs periodically, causing a shift in winds. Mann, assistant professor of environmental sciences at U.Va., and his colleagues at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and at the University of Massachusetts, compared results of a computer climate simulation with actual climate data to estimate climate and atmospheric conditions during the peak of the Little Ice Age. Their work shows that climactic changes during the period were concentrated more regionally than globally. Changes in the sun’s energy used to be one of the biggest factors influencing climate change. Since the industrial revolution, however, greenhouse gasses have become the biggest catalysts. Between the mid-1600s and the early 1700s, the Earth’s surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere appear to have been equal to or near the lowest levels during the 20th century, and only about one degree Fahrenheit colder than today. In contrast, European winter temperatures were reduced by 1.8 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit — and that difference was enough to routinely freeze canals solid in Holland, as well as lock up Greenland in ice. “In an inverse way, this has implications for the global warming debate,” Mann said. “It could suggest that when global temperature warms even slightly, some regions would experience potentially significant temperature increases, which could affect people, crops and ecosystems.”

“By using records from a variety of sources, we can assemble a much more comprehensive, global picture,” Mann says. By matching these data with well-understood weather patterns like El Niño, we can make reasonable surmises about conditions in areas for which we have no data.
For Mann, creativity involves moving deeper and deeper into a problem. He found the level of accuracy attained by simply compiling data was inadequate because it does not account for local anomalies — conditions that might produce unusual readings in a specific year or contaminate the data. Consequently, he chose to apply the tools of multivariate statistical analysis, which enables him to compare groups of data over any given year and compare them with established patterns. He can then identify the most reliable information in the available data.
“We turn to the instrumental record established during the past 100 years to identify a dozen or so influential patterns,” he says. “In essence we are using the 20th century to train the proxy data from previous centuries.” To ensure that he doesn’t bias his analysis toward the 20th century, he assumes that the frequency and amplitude of these patterns might be different in the past.
Mann’s creativity and persistence have paid off. Conclusions about yearly temperature produced by his statistical methods have been confirmed by climate models that incorporate such factors as variations in solar energy, including the effects of these variations on the jet stream.
This validation, in turn, helps give the modelers the assurance they need to apply their models to predicting changes in the future.
Main story reprinted from the Winter 2002 issue of Explorations, produced by the Office of the Vice Provost for Research and Public Service and the University Development Office of Corporate and Foundation Relations. Online at www.virginia.edu/researchandpublicservice/explorations
Clarification: All of the articles reprinted from Explorations in the Feb. 8 issue of Inside UVA were written by Charles Feigenoff.

The Future Doesn't Hurt. Yet

By MATTHIEU RICARD

Published: June 23, 2011

When, in the early morning, I sit in the little meadow in front of my hermitage on a quiet hilltop, two hours’ drive from Katmandu in Nepal, my eyes take in hundreds of miles of lofty Himalayan peaks glowing in the rising sun. The serenity of the scenery blends naturally and seamlessly with the peace within. It is a long way indeed from the frantic city life I once lived.

But the peace I know is no escape from the world below — or the science I once studied. I work with the toughest problems of the real world in the 30 clinics and schools that Karuna-Shechen, the foundation I created with a few dedicated friends and benefactors, runs in Tibet, Nepal and India. And now, after 40 years among these majestic mountains, I have become acutely aware of the ravages of climate change in the Himalayas and on the Tibetan plateau. From where I sit in my little meadow, it is especially sad to witness the Himalayan peaks becoming grayer and grayer as glaciers melt and snows recede.

The debate about climate change is mostly conducted by people who live in cities, where everything is artificial. They don’t actually experience the changes that are taking place in the real world. The vast majority of Tibetans, Nepalese and Bhutanese who live on both sides of the Himalayas have never heard of global warming, as they have little or no access to the news media. Yet they all say that the ice is not forming as thickly as before on lakes and rivers, that winter temperatures are getting warmer and the spring blossoms are coming earlier. What they may not know is that these are symptoms of far greater dangers.

In the beautiful kingdom of Bhutan, where I spent nine years, recent investigations by the only glaciologist in the country, Kharma Thoeb, have shown that a natural moraine dam that separates two glacial lakes in the Lunana area is today only 31 meters deep, in comparison to 74 meters in 2003. If this wall gives way, some 53 million cubic meters of water will rush down the valley of Punakha and Wangdi, causing immense damage and loss of life. Altogether there are 400 glacial lakes in Nepal and Bhutan that may break their natural dams and flood populated areas lower in the valleys. If these floods occur, the glaciers will increasingly shrink. This will cause drought, since the streams and rivers will not be fed by melting snow.

Chinese climatologists have called the Himalayan glaciers and other major mountains located in the Tibetan plateau the “third pole” of our ailing planet. There are 40,000 large and small glaciers on the Tibetan plateau and this area is melting at a rate three to four times faster than the North and South Poles. The melting is particularly accelerated in the Himalayas by the pollution that settles on the snow and darkens the glaciers, making them more absorbent to light.

According to international development agencies, about half of the populations of China, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, India and Pakistan depend on the watershed from the rivers of the Tibetan plateau for their agriculture, general water supply, and, therefore, survival. The consequences of the drying up of these great rivers will be catastrophic.

When I was 20, I was hired as a researcher in the cellular genetics lab of François Jacob, who had just been awarded the Nobel Prize for medicine. There, I worked for six years toward my doctorate. Life was far from dull, but something essential was missing.

Everything changed in Darjeeling in northern India in 1967, when I met several remarkable human beings who, for me, exemplified what a fulfilled human life can be. These Tibetan masters, all of whom had just fled the Communist invasion of Tibet, radiated inner goodness, serenity and compassion. Returning from this first journey, I became aware that I’d found a reality that could inspire my whole life and give it direction and meaning. In 1972, I decided to move to Darjeeling, in the shadow of the Himalayas, to study with the great Tibetan masters Kangyur Rinpoche and Dilgo Khyentse Rinpoche.

In India and then in Bhutan, I lived a beautiful and simple life. I came to understand that while some people may be naturally happier than others, their happiness is still vulnerable and incomplete; that achieving durable happiness as a way of being requires sustained effort in training the mind and developing qualities like inner peace, mindfulness and altruistic love.

Then one day in 1979, shortly after our monastery in Nepal had been equipped with a phone line, someone called me from France to ask if I would like to engage in a dialogue with my father, the philosopher Jean-François Revel. I said “of course,” but thought that I would never hear from the person again, as I did not believe that my father, a renowned agnostic, would ever want to dialogue with a Buddhist monk, even one who was his son. But to my surprise, he readily accepted and we spent a wonderful 10 days in Nepal, discussing many issues about the meaning of life. That was the end of my quiet, anonymous life and the beginning of a different way of interacting with the world. The book that followed, The Monk and the Philosopher, became a bestseller in France and was translated into 21 languages.

It dawned on me that much more money than I had ever envisioned having would be coming my way. Since I could not see myself acquiring an estate in France or somewhere else, it seemed to me that the most natural thing to do would be to donate all the proceedings and rights of that and subsequent books to helping others. The foundation I created for that purpose is now called Karuna-Shechen, and it implements and maintains humanitarian and educational projects throughout Asia.

Humanitarian projects have since become a central focus of my life and, with a few dedicated volunteer friends and generous benefactors, and under the inspiration of the abbot of my monastery, Rabjam Rinpoche, we have built and run clinics and schools in Tibet, Nepal and India where we treat about 100,000 patients a year and provide education to nearly 10,000 children. We have managed to do this spending barely 4 percent of our budget on overhead expenses.

My life has definitely become more hectic, but I have also discovered over the years that trying to transform oneself to better transform the world brings lasting fulfillment and, above all, the irreplaceable boon of altruism and compassion.

Imagine a ship that is sinking and needs all the available power to run the pumps to drain out the rising waters. The first class passengers refuse to cooperate because they feel hot and want to use the air-conditioner and other electrical appliances. The second-class passengers spend all their time trying to be upgraded to first-class status. The boat sinks and the passengers all drown. That is where the present approach to climate change is leading.

Whether people realize it or not, their actions can have disastrous effects — as the environmental changes in the Himalayas, the Arctic circle and many other places are showing us. The unbridled consumerism of our planet’s richest 5 percent is the greatest contributor to the climate change that will bring the greatest suffering to the most destitute 25 percent, who will face the worst consequences. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, on average an Afghan produces 0.02 tons of CO2 per year, a Nepalese and a Tanzanian 0.1, a Briton 10 tons, an American 19 and a Qatari 51 tons, which is 2,500 times more than an Afghan.

Unchecked consumerism operates on the premise that others are only instruments to be used and that the environment is a commodity. This attitude fosters unhappiness, selfishness and contempt upon other living beings and upon our environment. People are rarely motivated to change on behalf of something for their future and that of the next generation. They imagine, “Well, we’ll deal with that when it comes.” They resist the idea of giving up what they enjoy just for the sake of avoiding disastrous long-term effects. The future doesn’t hurt — yet.

An altruistic society is one in which we do not care only for ourselves and our close relatives, but for the quality of life of all present members of society, while being mindfully concerned as well by the fate of coming generations.

In particular, we need to make significant progress concerning the way we treat animals, as objects of consumption and industrial products, not as living beings who strive for well-being and want to avoid suffering. Every year, more than 150 billion land animals are killed in the world for human consumption, as well as some 1.5 trillion sea animals. In rich countries, 99 percent of these land animals are raised and killed in industrial farms and live only a fraction of their life expectancy. In addition, according to United Nations and FAO reports on climate change, livestock production is responsible for a greater proportion of emissions (18 percent) of greenhouse gases than the entire global transportation sector. One solution may be to eat less meat!

As the Dalai Lama has often pointed out, interdependence is a central Buddhist idea that leads to a profound understanding of the nature of reality and to an awareness of global responsibility. Since all beings are interrelated and all, without exception, want to avoid suffering and achieve happiness, this understanding becomes the basis for altruism and compassion. This in turn naturally leads to the attitude and practice of nonviolence toward human beings and animals — and toward the environment.

 Matthieu Ricard was a scientist in cell genetics 40 years ago when he decided to live in the Himalayas and become a Buddhist monk. He is a photographer and the author of several books, including “Happiness: How to Cultivate Life’s Most Important Skill.” He lives in Nepal and has been involved in more than 100 humanitarian projects.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/24/opinion/global/24iht-june24-ihtmag-ricard-30.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0