Showing posts with label Canada. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Canada. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Before and After the Insane Fort McMurray Fire, From 350 Miles Above Earth

Last week, a firestorm leveled the northern Canadian city of Fort McMurray. It still burns, under a cloud of smoke and ash that hide how much it has destroyed. But only from the naked eye. Satellites equipped with infrared cameras have peered through the black cloud to reveal a charred Fort McMurray.
The images in the above gallery come from a pair of satellites operated by DigitalGlobe, a remote sensing company. Called WorldView 2 and 3, each looks at different swaths of the infrared spectrum, which allows them to see a dynamic picture of the devastation. This is not disaster porn. First responders use images like these to predict a fire’s movement, and plan their suppression efforts. And they provide those of us lucky enough to be far away from Fort McMurray a reminder of the dangers of a warming world.

Temperatures in Fort McMurray last week were close to 90˚F. In May. In Canada. Northern Canada. Fort McMurray is pretty far inland, but near the same latitude as Juneau, Alaska. That warm weather came off a pretty light snow year, which means the trees around the city were pretty dry. Add strong winds to the mix and you get, well, the situation playing out on these satellite images.
The WorldView-3 orbits at around 385 miles above the Earth’s surface. It is sun-synchronous, which means it is always in daylight. Its onboard camera has 16 different bands, one of which captures light in the short wave infrared spectrum. “As you move from visible light, to near infrared, to shortwave infrared, you are picking up sunlight reflected from the surface, but also the heat signature from planet itself,” says Kumar Navulur, DigitalGlobe’s senior director of strategic solutions. Essentially, the short wave infrared camera’s heat sensing ability lets it see the fire’s flicker through the cloud of smoke.

Another of DigitalGlobe’s satellites, the WorldView-2, also looked at the fire. Though it wasn’t able to peer through the smoke, it did allow DigitalGlobe’s technicians to create before and after images of the fire. Those technicians combine the infrared imagery with false color pictures of the landscape. Which leads to some weird color schemes. For instance, red is good, because it represents living forest. Burned areas are grey. “After a fire, all the chlorophyll in the trees is killed, so it has no color value,” says Navulur.

DigitalGlobe’s constellation of satellites collect over a million square miles of satellite imagery every day. In a year, that’s around 80 petabytes of data. They can fly over places like Fort McMurray once a day. “Once we collect the data, within about two hours it can be available online anywhere in the globe,” says Navulur.
Not just for first responders. DigitalGlobe’s clients include tech companies, governments, aid groups, oil and gas companies—virtually anyone with a desire to understand how the Earth works. Including other cities looking to protect themselves from the vagaries of the changing climate. “You want to prepare, react, recover,” says Navulur. Hotter, drier weather means longer fire seasons. Wetter, warmer winters means more flooding. Vigilance—aided by an all-seeing eye—is the best way to peer through the smoke of uncertainty for what is yet to come.
 http://www.wired.com/2016/05/insane-fort-mcmurray-fire-350-miles-earth/?mbid=social_fb#slide-5

Thursday, March 24, 2016

Chinese Take Over Canada's Real Estate Market, Buy One-Third Of All Vancouver Homes Sold In 2015

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“Housing in Vancouver is insane — it was insane when I left and it’s more insane now.”
That’s from 33-year-old Kevin Oke, co-founder of LlamaZoo Interactive who left Vancouver for Victoria two years ago because he couldn’t afford to buy a home in his native city even while earning a generous salary as a lead designer at a video-game company whose clients included Atari and Ubisoft Entertainment SA.  
Kevin isn't the only one leaving. Vancouver added only 884 net new people age 18-24 last year according to Statistics Canada, and many observers worry the soaring cost of housing will eventually strip the city of its burgeoning tech economy.
(a representative listing from Point Grey)
We’ve spilled quite a bit of digital ink documenting the “three-alarm fire” (to quote Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter) that’s burning in British Columbia’s housing market. Here, for those who missed it, are some informative posts:
According to the Greater Vancouver Real Estate Board, residential property sales in Greater Vancouver rose 31.7% in January, 46% above the 10-year sales average for the first month of the year and the second highest January ever. The benchmark price for a detached home in Vancouver: $1,293,700. The benchmark price for an apartment: $456,600. The latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association shows the average price of a home in Canada rose an astonishing 16% Y/Y last month to more than $500,000. Underscoring the extent to which British Columbia and Ontario are driving the market, stripping out those two provinces pulls the national average down to under $300,000.
Prices in Vancouver surged 26% in February.

So what's behind the inexorable rise? How is it possible that "fixer uppers" like the residence shown above go for $2,500,000? It's very simple. Chinese worried about continued market turmoil and a weaker RMB, are moving money out of the country. As CAD slid against USD, Chinese "investors" found Canadian real estate to be comparably priced vis-a-vis US real estate in USD terms. Wealthy Chinese funneled their dollars into the Canadian market, driving up prices. In short: capital flight from China has created a massive housing bubble in cities like Toronto and Vancouver. Throw in the fact that some of these locales - like Waterloo, Ontario - are becoming tech hubs, and you have the recipe for overheating markets.
Just how prevalent is Chinese buying, you ask? Well according to National Bank's Peter Routledge who did some "back of the envelope" calculations, fully one-third of all Vancouver real estate purchased in Vancouver last year was bought by Chinese investors.
"Chinese investors spent about C$12.7 billion ($9.6 billion) on real estate in the western Canadian city in 2015, or 33 percent of its C$38.5 billion in total sales," Bloomberg writes, citing Routledge and analysts Parham Fini and Paul Poon who "extrapolated from a Financial Times survey of 77 high-end buyers and data from the U.S. National Association of Realtors." Here's a bit more from The Globe And Mail:
Without any Canadian-specific data on foreign investors to go on, the economists came up with their estimates by extrapolating from two international surveys of realtors and buyers.

One is an annual report on the level of foreign home-buyer investment by the National Association of Realtors, based on surveys of real estate agents in the United States. It estimates that Chinese investors bought $28.6-billion (U.S.) of real estate in the U.S. housing market between March, 2014, and March, 2015, a seven-fold increase from the $4.1-billion they spent in 2009.

The second is a multiple-choice survey by the Financial Times of 77 wealthy Chinese investors who had bought real estate outside of China. Of those, 33.5 per cent said they bought homes in United States, while 11.7 per cent invested in Vancouver and 8.3 per cent in Toronto.

Combining the two surveys, the economists estimate that Chinese investors spent roughly $9-billion (Canadian) on home sales in the Greater Toronto Area last year, or 14 per cent of all total sales volume in the region.

In the Greater Vancouver Area, they estimate Chinese investors spent $12.7-billion – or 33 per cent of total sales. That figure, they say, lines up with research from B.C. urban planner Andy Yan, who found that 66 per cent of all sales of 172 detached homes in three west-side Vancouver neighbourhoods within a six-month period were to buyers with non-Anglicized Chinese names.

The economists admit their survey is somewhat unscientific, but say such attempts highlight the importance of collecting better data on the influence of foreign investment, and even immigration, on housing market affordability.
"Lacking adequate Canadian data to address this issue, we revert to data produced in other countries (primarily the United States) and derive inferences or hypotheses for Canada," Routledge explains. "The National Association of Realtors (NAR) in the U.S. produces an annual profile of international home buying activity. The NAR defines an international buyer as either (1) a non-resident foreigner, or (2) a resident foreigner – i.e., recent immigrants (in the country for less than two years) or temporary visa holders (residing in the country for at least six months)." Here's more from the note:
As illustrated in Figure 1, the NAR estimates that buyers from China invested US$28.6 billion in U.S.-domiciled residential real estate properties over the 12 months ending March 31, 2015, up from just US$4.1 billion in 2009.


We infer from this data, therefore, that the purchase volume for buyers from China in Toronto and Vancouver in 2015 must be some proportion of the U.S. figure of US$28.6 billion. The question is: what proportion?


Figure 2, we depict the results of a multiple choice survey the Financial Times solicited from 77 high net worth and affluent individuals from China (admittedly not a statistically significant sample size). Of those who had purchased residential real estate outside China, 33.5% had done so in the United States, 11.7% in Vancouver, and 8.3% in Toronto. From this survey data, one could hypothesize that for every four high net worth investors from China who purchase a U.S. residence, one purchases a residence in Toronto; and for every three high net worth investors from China who purchase a U.S. residence, one purchases a residence in Vancouver. One can then apply these ratios to the NAR’s estimate of US$28.6 billion in U.S. residential real estate investment made by buyers from China. From this, we hypothesize that, in 2015, homebuyers from China invested ~US$9.9 billion / Cdn$12.7 billion in Vancouver residential real estate (on a total 2015 residential real estate purchase volume in greater Vancouver of Cdn$38.5 billion, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver); this amounts to 33% of total purchase volume.

Routledge and co.'s bar napkin figure is alarming to say the least and underscores the need for Canadian officials to monitor the situation more closely before foreign investors price everyone completely out of the market. "Currently it is not possible to fully understand the role of foreign homebuyers in Canada’s housing market since a comprehensive and reliable data set on the number of homes sold to foreign homebuyers does not exist," the country's 2016 budget says. Canada will devote CAD500,000 to "solving" the data collection problem:
Budget 2016 proposes to address this data gap by allocating $500,000 to Statistics Canada in 2016–17 to develop methods for gathering data on purchases of Canadian housing by foreign homebuyers. This initiative could involve collaboration with the provinces, such as British Columbia, which recently announced its intention to have homebuyers disclose whether they are citizens or permanent residents of Canada or another country.
Right. CAD500,000. That should do it. "Investing only 25.7 percent of the cost of an average price of a detached home in Vancouver is, at the very least, a touch on the low side," Routledge remarked, dryly.
It sure is. Especially considering that the need to closely monitor developments in Vancouver and other "three alarm fire" markets is only going to grow in the months and years ahead as China's hard landing continues to necessitate an ever weaker RMB to juice flagging exports. Meanwhile, the effort to stamp out overcapacity in China's industrial sector will invariably put enormous pressure on the country's banking system which is laboring under a mountainous pile of NPLs, the true size of which no one fully understands. Once the bad loan burden finally becomes too much to shoulder (which it will once the half trillion in receivables on Chinese companies' balance sheets create an intractable working capital problem), the PBoC will be forced to recap the banks at an enormous cost that, if Kyle Bass is correct, will lead to a 40% plunge in the yuan. All of that means more capital flight and more Chinese buyers for prime Canadian real estate.
With Canadians now sitting on the highest debt-to-income ratio of any G7 country and with 50% of Canadians admitting they are within $200/month of being unable to pay their bills, it wouldn't take much in the way of higher housing prices to put a severe strain on household balance sheets. And it's not exactly like Stephen Poloz can cut rates much further unless he wants cucumbers to cost CAD10 each.
But don't despair Canadian home buyers. There are bargains aplenty in Alberta...

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Secession, Trump, and the Avoidability of Civil War

The Governor of California has joked about building a wall all the way around his state if Donald Trump becomes president of the other 49. Secession would not be a joke had it not been given an undeserved bad name. It would not have that bad name but for our universal acceptance of imperialism and of an overly simplistic history of the U.S. Civil War.
Slavery in the U.S. South was widespread through World War II, Jim Crow through the 1960s, mass incarceration through the current day, and bitterness over the Civil War for the foreseeable future. Had the U.S. avoided civil war through a compromise that restricted slavery to existing slave states, or even through a compromise that allowed its possible expansion, or through simply allowing states to secede without war, the net result might have been good or bad. A few things are certain. The bitterness over the war would not exist, the 700,000 killed and many more injured and the incredible destruction of burned cities and fields would not have happened, and war would not have been glorified during the childhoods of the generation that would launch global U.S. imperialism at the dawn of the 20th century.
Very likely, in addition, slavery would have ended more quickly and more thoroughly than it did. Of course, that cannot be stated with certainty. But a nation half-slave, half-free that sought to work through problems without war would have very likely ended slavery through some form of compensated emancipation fairly quickly, bringing up the rear in a global process of liberation. Two or more smaller nations that sought to avoid war would have very likely also put an end to slavery in the one or more nations maintaining it, in part because of international and economic forces and the absence of a fugitive slave law, but also because smaller nations, all else equal, have an easier time achieving democracy. If we had smaller nations on this continent now, or if we were to choose to in the future, we would see the ability of people to bring popular pressure to bear on the governments soar.

Of course, it’s anything but an easy moral question whether 4 million people should be left enslaved another moment, or whether a nation should launch a war that might benefit them, though in the end it actually brought very limited and short-lived gains along with 700,000 killed and numerous disastrous results for decades to come. Not only are the results known only after the war, but the moral question has been invented after the war. Many in the North did not want a war to free slaves. A draft had to finally be created, as in the South as well, to compel people to kill and die. And those in power in Washington, including President-elect Lincoln, did not want war to free the slaves, only to prevent the expansion of slavery westward. When the South would not agree to restricting slavery to its current boundaries, Northern decision makers chose to launch a war over “union” — preferring slaughter to permitting the South, or some part of it, to leave.
Mark Tooley has published a book called The Peace That Almost Was: The Forgotten Story of the 1861 Washington Peace Conference and the Final Attempt to Avert the Civil War. It may remain a forgotten story for at least four reasons that leap out at me. First, Tooley adds in so much gossip-column fluff on clothes and parties and families and churches that it’s almost physically impossible to make it through his book if you’re looking only for what happened at the conference; this is truly a shame in a culture that already considers peace boring and war exciting. Second, Tooley concludes that the war was “inevitable” anyway, so why should you care? (And why did he give his book the title he did?) Third, Tooley almost completely overlooks the possibility that was most open to the North, namely allowing the South to leave in peace. Fourth, if you look into the details and consider how easily peace might have been chosen instead of war, you may feel a bit of discomfort in your mind. You may come up against the fact that many nations did end slavery without a civil war, and then have to start questioning whether in fact lots of other wars have also been “inevitable.”
A strong case could be made that the peace conference was begun too late. Seven states had already seceded. A conference on peaceful secession before secession, or a conference on a slavery compromise before secession, would have been easier. Oh and, by the way, the entire topic of the conference was slavery, not some other vague cause of “states rights” or anything of the sort. Nonetheless, the conference had numerous chances to reach an agreement, and in the end did reach an agreement — which Congress tossed aside in favor of war, and which Congress was assisted in tossing aside by some members of the peace conference who quickly badmouthed what they had done and opted for war. Among the latter was former U.S. President John Tyler who had chaired the peace conference before returning to Virginia and denouncing it.
Under consideration at the conference was not primarily slavery in the slave states, and certainly not ending it through compensated emancipation, as would be done in Washington, D.C., and numerous foreign countries. At issue was principally the expansion of slavery into the expanding western empire. Both sides insisted on imperial expansion to such an extent that it was truly beyond debate. If they’d been somehow made content with the current size of the country, that too could have resolved the dispute and averted war. So, in that peculiar sense, the Civil War was a war of empire. Delegates from both Northern and Southern states (quite a crowd of former senators and justices and the like) tended also to assume that their choices were either union or war, not peaceful division. A greater willingness to accept peaceful separation could also have averted war.
Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin sent no delegates. William Lloyd Garrison urged the desirability of war. Peace conference delegate Roger Baldwin of Connecticut advocated no compromise with slavery. Some Southern delegates urged no compromise with freedom, even while whining about threats to their own rights and comforts without a thought for those of the people enslaved in their states. The peace conference dragged on unpeacefully for 19 days, with Congress and the states holding their breath and holding off on actions.
Delegate Reverdy Johnson of Maryland made a case for compromise to both sides, urging the North to accept the deal of the old Missouri Compromise as preferable to the Dred Scott decision’s ruling that slavery could spread north of latitude 36°30′. Southern delegates were intent on not just preserving slavery but expanding it westward. President-elect Lincoln met with the peace conference and made clear that he would never stand for that and would prefer war; he would leave slavery alone where it existed but never allow it to expand.
After all variety of proposals were heard and rejected, ultimately a compromise was reached by the peace conference that reinstated the Missouri Compromise, required a majority of slave-state senators to approve of new territory, prohibited Congressional interference with slavery, banned the importation of enslaved people from abroad, and affirmed fugitive slave laws but also allowed for compensation paid to an owner to make an escaped slave free. Arguably this final agreement and other proposals that were rejected all propped up slavery more than simply allowing secession would have. The Senate and House quickly took up the peace conference agreement and rejected it. This was a Congress now missing any representatives from eight states, another reason why acting sooner might have succeeded.
During the course of the conference, some hints at another possible course were heard. General Winfield Scott said that dividing the country into four countries would be a “lesser evil” than war. Senator Salmon Chase of Ohio said, “The thing to be done is to let the South go.” Former Massachusetts Governor George Boutwell said that the union should be kept free of slavery or not kept. (But he warned ominously that the South could try to annex Mexico and other land, and block the North’s expansion to the Pacific. Again, it was all about empire.) Former New York Congressman Francis Granger raised the example of letting the South go as an act too cruel to be considered (so beneficial, apparently, was union with the North). George Summers of Virginia proposed a new nation of the border states, letting the Deep South and New England do their own things.
Victory, and thereby top praise in the history books, went to those who wanted war, including those who opposed slavery, those who demanded “union,” and those who insisted on expanding slavery far and wide.
But when secession is proposed in the future, we should not be rash in rejecting it. If the North had let the South go way back when, both countries might be much better off today. If, after the Civil War, someone had been able to turn the clock back four years, the North might have been very willing to let the South go. The South might also have been very willing to give up slavery, or at least its expansion westward, without the insanity and horror of a war. Secession may be an improvement on what we’ve got now. There are only so many immigrants Canada is going to take.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Canadians Panic As Food Prices Soar On Collapsing Currency

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-13/canadians-panic-food-prices-soar-collapsing-currency 
It was just yesterday when we documented the continuing slide in the loonie, which is suffering mightily in the face of oil’s inexorable decline.
As regular readers are no doubt acutely aware, Canada is struggling through a dramatic economic adjustment, especially in Alberta, the heart of the country’s oil patch. Amid the ongoing crude carnage the province has seen soaring property crime, rising food bank usage and, sadly, elevated suicide rates, as Albertans struggle to comprehend how things up north could have gone south (so to speak) so quickly.
The plunging loonie “can only serve to worsen the death of the 'Canadian Dream'" we said on Tuesday.
As it turns out, we were exactly right.
The currency's decline is having a pronounced effect on Canadians' grocery bills. As Bloomberg reminds us, Canada imports around 80% of its fresh fruits and vegetables. When the loonie slides, prices for those good soar. "With lower-income households tending to spend a larger portion of income on food, this side effect of a soft currency brings them the most acute stress," Bloomberg continues.
Of course with the layoffs piling up, you can expect more households to fall into the "lower-income" category where they will have to struggle to afford things like $3 cucumbers, $8 cauliflower, and $15 Frosted Flakes. Have a look at the following tweets which underscore just how bad it is in Canada's grocery aisles.
If the CAD $ gets any weaker we might be able to buy groceries with shiny rocks
Three bucks. For a cucumber.
@sladurantaye Heh. Had a similar reaction when I saw the price of cauliflower. Welcome to the future… pic.twitter.com/fxloxyePY3
View image on Twitter
So, the @liberal_party just clawed back $34 M in equalization payments to Nunavut. This is what people pay 4 pepper.
The cost of Tide detergent in Nunavut:


No "Jack Nasty" it's not The Great Depression, but as we highlighted three weeks ago, it is Canada's depression and it's likely to get worse before it gets better. "Last year, fruits and veggies jumped in price between 9.1 and 10.1 per cent, according to an annual report by the Food Institute at the University of Guelph," CBC said on Tuesday. "The study predicts these foods will continue to increase above inflation this year, by up to 4.5 per cent for some items."
If you thought we were being hyperbolic when we suggested that if oil prices don't rise soon, Canadians may well eat themselves to death, consider the following from Diana Bronson, the executive director of Food Secure Canada: 
"Lower- and middle-class people — many who can't find a job that will pay them enough to ensure that they can afford a healthy diet for their families" — also feel the pinch of rising food prices"

"The wrong kind of food is cheap, and the right kind of food is still expensive."
In other words, some now fear that the hardest hit parts of the country may experience a spike in obesity rates as Canadians resort to cheap, unhealthy foods. As we put it, "in Alberta it's 'feast or famine' in the most literal sense of the phrase as those who can still afford to buy food will drown their sorrows in cheap lunch meat and off-brand ice cream while the most hard hit members of society are forced to tap increasingly overwhelmed food banks." 
And the rub is that there's really nothing anyone can do about it.
Were the Bank of Canada to adopt pro-cyclical measures to shore up the loonie, they would risk choking off economic growth just as the crude downturn takes a giant bite out of the economy - no food pun intended.

Monday, November 2, 2015

Forget China: This Extremely "Developed" Country Just Suffered Its Biggest Money Outflow Ever

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/forget-china-extremely-developed-country-just-suffered-its-biggest-money-outflow-eve
While understandably all eyes have been fixed on every monthly capital outflow update from China (even the ones that the Politburo is clearly massaging), few have noticed that one of the biggest total outflows currently in the global developed economy is taking place right in America's own back yard.
According to BofA's Kamal Sharma, Canada’s basic balance - a combination of the capital and the current account: a measure of national accounts that spans everything from trade to financial-market flows - swung from a surplus of 4.2% of GDP to a deficit of 7.9% in the 12 months ending in June. That’s the fastest one-year deterioration among 10 major developed nations.


Citing Sharma's data Bloomberg writes that "money is flooding out of Canada at the fastest pace in the developed world as the nation’s decade-long oil boom comes to an end and little else looks ready to take the industry’s place as an economic driver." In fact, based on the chart below, the outflow is the fastest on record.

"This is Canadian investors that are pushing money abroad," said Alvise Marino, a foreign-exchange strategist at Credit Suisse Group AG in New York. "The policy in Canada the last 10 years has greatly favored investments in energy. Now the drop in oil prices made all that investment unprofitable."
The reasons for the accelerating otflows are familiar, or mostly one reason: the collapse in crude oil, among the nation’s biggest exports, has dropped to half of its 2014 peak. "The slump has derailed projects this year in Canada’s oil sands - one of the world’s most expensive crude-producing regions. Royal Dutch Shell Plc’s decision to put its Carmon Creek drilling project on ice last week lengthened that list to 18, according to ARC Financial Corp."
Worse, there does not appear to be any improvement, despite the recent stabilization in Brent prices:
More recent data on where companies and mutual-fund investors are putting their money show the trend extended into the second half of the year, suggesting demand for the Canadian dollar and the country’s assets is still ebbing. The currency is already down 11 percent this year, after touching an 11-year low against the U.S. dollar in September.
Where is all this capital going? Canadian companies have been looking abroad for acquisitions. Royal Bank of Canada is expected to close its $5.4 billion purchase of Los Angeles-based City National Corp. Monday, its biggest-ever takeover. It’s part of a net outflow of C$73 billion this year for mergers and acquisitions, both completed and announced, according to Credit Suisse data.
Canada's stock market confirms this trend: nine of the 10 best-performing companies on the country’s benchmark stock index in the past two years have favored buying growth abroad rather than expanding at home.
Individuals are following suit.
"While international appetite for Canadian financial securities has held steady this year, domestic mutual-fund investors have pulled money from Canada-focused funds and plowed it into global choices for six straight months, the longest streak in two years, according to Investment Funds Institute of Canada data compiled by Bank of Montreal."
Bloomberg calculates that more weakness for the CAD, and more capital outflows, are on deck as the Canadian dollar has to get cheaper to make Canadian businesses outside of the oil industry competitive enough with foreign peers to make them worth investing in, according to Benjamin Reitzes, an economist at Bank of Montreal.
Canada's economic weakness was recently confirmed when it reported two months ago that it had entered its first recession since the financial crisis.


Earlier today, Canada's manufacturing sector got even more bad news when the latest RBC Canadian Manufacturing PMI survey dropped to a record low in October, with output, new orders and employment all declining since the previous month. Moreover, new export sales dropped for the first time since April, with survey respondents noting that weaker global economic conditions had weighed on new business volumes.
In other words, not even the tumbling loonie is helping boost exports: a bedrock assumption of modern monetary policy.
Meanwhile, input costs rose at a sharp and accelerated pace in October, which placed pressure on operating margins and contributed to a further slight increase in factory gate charges.
Finally, the country is expected to post its 12th straight merchandise trade deficit this week, according to every economist in a Bloomberg survey.
Perhaps it is ironic: a year after we predicted the death of the petrodollar would cripple Emerging Markets around the globe (something which was confirmed in the China devaluation/EM debt crisis of 2015) the nation most impacted by the collapse in oil is neither China, nor - as many had expected - Russia, but what to many is a bedrock of economic stability: the AAA rated Canada.
How long until not Putin but Harper's successor is seen in the White House, begging Obama to put an end to QE so that the US shale sector, thanks to infinite junk bond refills courtesy of the Federal Reserve and "investors" allocating other people's money, will mercifully die and prevent Canada's economy from sliding from recession into an outright depression?

Thursday, October 15, 2015

The Philippines Is Still Pissed Off That Canada Is Using It as a Giant Garbage Bin

October 15, 2015
http://www.vice.com/read/the-philippines-is-still-pissed-off-that-vancouver-is-using-it-as-a-giant-garbage-bin-vgtrn?utm_source=vicetwitterus
Read: Montreal Is Going to Dump Two Billion Gallons of Raw Shit into the St. Lawrence River
Vancouver, a city known for its borderline self-righteous waste disposal policies, is being called out by the Philippines for essentially using the island nation as an enormous trash bin.
In 2013, the Ontario-based company Chronic Inc. sent 50 shipping containers, or 2,500 tons, of "plastic for recycling" to the Philippines, but closer inspection by that country's Bureau of Customs revealed the bins were filled with regular old trash, including rotting food and adult diapers.
The Philippines has not taken kindly to this nasty surprise, with politicians and environmentalists arguing that Canada violated international hazardous waste laws by shipping its crap overseas. To date, the pile of trash is still festering in a Manila port.

"Canada should take back its waste," Philippine Senator Loren Legarda told fellow senators at a hearing last week, while Leah Paquiz, a member of the country's House of Representatives is demanding Canada "show us the decency that we so rightfully deserve as a nation. My motherland is not a garbage bin of Canada." At a protest staged outside of the Canadian Embassy in May, one person even reportedly dressed as a garbage-filled shipping container. Now, there's a Change.org petition calling for a congressional inquiry into "imported Canadian garbage."
Chronic Inc. owner Jim Makris has said he purchased the recyclables from a Vancouver firm. But earlier this week, Malcolm Brodie, chair of Metro Vancouver's Zero Waste Committee, denied the city's involvement in the literal mess.
"It sounds like it's come from... Whitby, Ontario, where there's a company called Ontario Chronic Inc. It may have gone through the Port of Vancouver but it's not Metro Vancouver waste, for sure," he told local talk radio station CKNW.
Shipping waste to developing countries is such an issue, the United Nations banned the practice through the Basel Convention, which Canada is a part of.In an interview last year with the Toronto Star, Makris said sending garbage abroad doesn't make sense because it's more expensive than getting rid of it domestically.
At the time, Makris characterized the controversy as "the stupidest thing I've heard of in my entire life."
A spokesman for Canada's Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development told VICE there was nothing hazardous in the material shipped and that no laws exist to force Makris to recall the shipping containers.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Media Blackout: Canada Plans To Dump Nuclear Waste Less Than Mile From US Border

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-08-27/media-blackout-canada-plans-dump-nuclear-waste-less-mile-us-border
Submitted by TheAntiMedia.org,
Over the last few years, the United States has not had the best track record with Deep Geologic Repositories (DGR) for nuclear waste. In February of 2014, the U.S.’ DGR, known as the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), had two separate incidents that compromised the integrity of the project by releasing airborne radioactive contamination. While most U.S. citizens were relatively unaffected by the events, our Canadian neighbors have proposed a plan to construct a DGR 0.6 miles from America’s largest source of fresh water, the Great Lakes — and the U.S. State Department is remaining relatively uninvolved.
In 2004, Ontario Power Generation (OPG) signed an agreement with the mayor of the Municipality of Kincardine that detailed the million-dollar payments OPG would make to Kincardine and four other shoreline municipalities for their support in the construction of a DRG. On December 2nd, 2005, OPG submitted a proposal to the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission (CNSC) to construct a long-term DGR for low and intermediate level nuclear waste on the Bruce Nuclear site within Kincardine. Bruce Nuclear is situated on the banks of Lake Huron — the same Lake Huron that borders the state of Michigan.
The 157-page document the OPG submitted to the CNSC outlined their plan to bury low and intermediate level nuclear waste — radioactive contaminated mops, rags, and industrial items as well as, resins, filters, and irradiated components from the nuclear reactors.
The OPG’s 2005 plan included thirty-one limestone burial caverns carved 680 meters below ground, extending approximately 1 kilometer (0.62 miles) from Lake Huron. In the initial report, the OPG published a favorable community reaction:
The results of Public Attitude Research indicate that…a large number of local residents feel a long-term waste management facility would have no effect on their level of satisfaction with the community,” it said.
Fast forward ten years, and some important public attitudes outside of the Municipality of Kincardine have vehemently voiced their opposition towards a nuclear waste dump less than a mile from one of the world’s largest fresh water sources. There are 41 million people living in the Great Lake region, and the OPG’s plan for a DGR is rightfully rubbing them the wrong way — so much so that groups like Stop the Great Lakes Nuclear Dump, the Canadian Environmental Law Agency (CELA), and the Sierra Club Canada are actively and vocally calling attention to the invalidity of the OPG’s plan, which includes a $35.7 million payment to fund construction.
In a statement to VICE, the Sierra Club’s program director, John Bennet, questioned the integrity of the OPG’s review panel, as it is full of “ex-nuclear industry officials.” He stated, “…[the panel has] never not approved a [nuclear] project.”  If you are wondering why a site so close to such an important body of fresh water was chosen to store radioactive nuclear material, you’re not alone. In CELA’s assessment of OPG’s research and plans, they stated:
OPG has not described how the alternatives to the proposed DGR and the alternative means of carrying out the project were evaluated and compared in light of risk avoidance, adaptive management capacity, and preparation for surprise…The DGR project cannot be identified as the preferred option until this has been done.
The aforementioned environmental groups are not the only constituents fighting against the DGR. In the United States and Canada, 169 resolutions have been passed against the DGR. Further, U.S. Senators Debbie Stabenow and Gary Peters have co-introduced the Stop Nuclear Waste by Our Lakes Act. The act calls for the State Department to invoke the 1909 Boundary Waters Treaty, mandating a study of OPG’s plan by the International Joint Commission.
Given the United States’ failure to build its own secure DGR, you would think the State Department would be concerned about its largest fresh water source’s close proximity to one. But, according to a VICE source,
“…[a representative from the State Department] said they have no plans to call for the binational review the senators are demanding.
Above all, given the risk inherent to the generation, disposal, and storage of nuclear power and waste, it is essential we use cases like this to support the aggressive promulgation of sustainable, clean energy. Beyond the threat imposed to those living in Kincardine and the Great Lakes region, everyone along the three hour drive between the Pickering and Darlington nuclear stations and the Bruce Nuclear site will be at risk while the waste is transported to the dump. Our current system is literally toxic and until citizens step up and stop millions of dollars from swaying government municipalities’ support of nuclear power companies, we will have few solutions to this poisonous problem.

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

'Not high on our radar': The epidemics of murdered women in Canada and Mexico

| June 20, 2015
"Zapatos Rojos" (Red Shoes) by Elina Chauvet. Each shoe represents one woman mur
To review the minimal, mostly belated media "coverage," in the first half of 2015, of the epidemic of femicides in the State of Mexico is perhaps, for many Canadians, to contemplate the staggering realities of missing and murdered Aboriginal women and girls in this country through another lens.
Apart from the obvious and all-too-familiar homicidal misogyny that drives events in both instances, are there instructive links to be discerned between them that do not sacrifice the specificities, not only of distinct societal phenomena separated geographically by the continental U.S., but of each murder, its circumstances and outcome?
The sequence of events that has been graphically abbreviated as #MMIW and #MMIWG has been reported and analyzed in mainstream and alternative Canadian media, and decried nationally and internationally by human rights organizations, damaging the already tarnished image of the Harper government well before the recent release of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission's final report, which includes among its recommendations a renewed call for a national inquiry that the federal government has repeatedly spurned. According to the report,
"the available information suggests a devastating link between the large numbers of murdered and missing Aboriginal women and the many harmful background factors in their lives.  The complex interplay of factors -- many of which are part of the legacy of residential schools -- need to be examined, as does the lack of success of police forces in solving these crimes against Aboriginal women."
Increasingly widespread knowledge -- if not full comprehension -- of the magnitude of the crisis has resulted in the mobilization of activists and some elements of civil society, but no action on the part of the federal government.
Mexican authorities have likewise rebuffed demands from family and community members to respond effectively to the deaths and disappearances of countless -- or at least uncounted -- women and girls in the State of Mexico (Estado de Mexico, or Edomex) over at least the past decade. As Nina Lakhani reported in The Guardian in April, "A staggering 1,258 girls and women were reported disappeared in Edomex in 2011 and 2012 -- of whom 53 per cent were aged between 10 and 17, according to figures obtained by the National Citizens Observatory on Femicides. Over the same period, 448 women were murdered in the state."  It is worth noting that, between 2005 and 2011, Edomex was governed by Enrique Pena Nieto, currently the President of Mexico; 1,200 women were reported murdered in the state during his tenure as governor.
Better publicized is the epidemic of homicidal violence against women in the northern city of Juarez:  379 women were reported murdered in the border city between 1993 and 2005. Local mobilizations, media coverage, growing international awareness, inquiries and legal reforms ensued.  It is all the more shocking to learn, after the fact, that in the same period, as Lakhani notes, "10 times as many women were murdered in Edomex than in Ciudad Juarez." 

To date, the most detailed and extensive research and reporting on femicides committed during this period is collected in the volume Las Muertas del Estado:  Feminicidios durante la administracion mexiquense de Enrique Pena Nieto, by Humberto Padgett and Eduardo Loza.  As Padgett summarily conveyed to VICE News reporter Daniel Hernandez regarding the "uptick" in femicides in Edomex over the past decade, "the facts revealed not the work of a serial killer, but rather that of a society in decay that was murdering its own women": Not a crime or series of crimes, then, but a distinctly sociological phenomenon.
Still, according to Lakhani,
"state officials have repeatedly said they need more proof that women in Edomex are being systematically targeted because of their gender, rather than falling victim to the violence of Mexico’s drug wars.  Last year, the state governor's spokesman said there were 'more serious issues to deal with' than gender-based violence."
More serious issues to deal with.
Not high our radar, to be honest.
Not a sociological phenomenon.
Indistinguishable assertions like these, emanating from law enforcement and elected officials, bind the crisis of missing and murdered Aboriginal women and girls in Canada to the overlooked epidemic of femicides in the State of Mexico.  Impunity prevails, at all levels: from the killers themselves, to the police, local administrations, the legal (aka "justice") systems and the highest levels of government.
As the now notorious Red River winds through Winnipeg, so the little-known Draga Canal runs sluggishly through the mostly poor and forgotten communities of Edomex -- indelible reminders of the pitiless violence that has transpired in their environs, and beyond.

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Canada, Do Not Follow U.S. Into Permawar

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/

By David Swanson and Robert Fantina
Oh Canada, to thine own self be true, not to thine heavily militarized neighbor. Robin Williams called you a nice apartment over a meth lab for a reason, and now you’re bringing the drugs upstairs.
We write to you as two U.S. citizens, one of whom moved to Canada when George W. Bush became U.S. president. Every wise observer in Texas had warned this country about their Governor Bush, but the message hadn’t gotten through.
We need the message to reach you now before you follow the United States down a path it has been on since its creation, a path that used to include regular invasions of your land, a path impeded a little by your generous sanctuary for those refusing war participation, and a path that now invites you to ruin yourself along with us. Misery and addiction and illegality love company, Canada. Alone they wither, but with aiders and abettors they flourish.
At the end of 2013 Gallup polls asked Canadians what nation they’d most like to move to, and zero of the Canadians polled said the United States, while people in the United States picked Canada as their most desired destination. Should the more desirable nation be imitating the less desirable, or the other way around?
In the same poll almost every nation of the 65 surveyed said the United States was the greatest threat to peace in the world. In the United States, bizarrely, people said Iran was the greatest threat — despite Iran spending less than 1% of what the United States does on militarism. In Canada, Iran and the United States tied for first place. You seem to be of two minds, Canada, one of them thoughtful, the other breathing the fumes of your downstairs neighbor.
At the end of 2014 Gallup asked people if they would fight for their country in a war. In many nations 60% to 70% said no, while 10% to 20% said yes. In Canada 45% said no, but 30% said yes. In the United States 44% said yes and 30% no. Of course they’re all lying, thank goodness. The United States always has several wars running, and everyone is free to sign up; almost none of the professed willing fighters do. But as a measure of support for war and approval of war participation, the U.S. numbers tell you where Canada is headed if it follows its southern friends.
A recent poll in Canada indicates that a majority of Canadians support going to war in Iraq and Syria, with support being highest, as might be expected, among Conservatives, with members of the NDP and Liberal parties offering less, but still significant, support. All this may be part of the Islamophobia that is sweeping much of North America and Europe. But, take it from us, the support is soon replaced with regret — and the wars do not end when the public turns against them. A majority of the U.S. public has believed the 2001 and 2003 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq should never have been begun for the majority of those wars’ existence. Once begun, however, the wars roll on, in the absence of serious public pressure to halt them.
Recent polling in Canada also indicates that while over 50% of respondents feel uncomfortable with someone wearing a hijab or abaya, over 60% of respondents support their right to wear it. That’s stunning and praiseworthy. To accept discomfort out of respect for others is a top qualifying characteristic of a peacemaker, not a warmaker. Follow that inclination, Canada!
The Canadian government, like the U.S. government, uses fear-mongering to implement its war policies. But again, there is cause for some limited optimism. A recently-proposed anti-terror bill, that legal experts have decried as depriving Canada of some basic rights, has received significant opposition, and is being amended. Unlike the U.S.A. PATRIOT Act, which sailed through Congress with little if any opposition, Canadian bill C-51 which, among other things, would stifle dissent, has been widely opposed both in Parliament and in the streets.
Build on that resistance to every evil justified by war, Canada. Resist the degradation of morality, the erosion of civil liberties, the drain to the economy, the environmental destruction, the tendency toward oligarchic rule and rogue illegality. Resist, in fact, the root problem, namely war.
It has been several years since the U.S. media regularly showed pictures of flag-draped coffins arriving on U.S. soil from far-flung war zones. And most of the victims of U.S. wars — those living where the wars are fought — are shown hardly at all. But Canada’s media may do better. You may literally see the evil of your wars. But will you see your way clear to getting out of them? It is far easier to not launch them. It is far easier still to not plan and prepare for them.
We remember the lead you took, Canada, in banning land mines. The United States sells flying land mines called cluster bombs to Saudi Arabia, which attacks its neighbors. The United States uses those cluster bombs on its own war victims. Is this the path you want to follow? Do you imagine, like some Las Vegas tiger tamer, that you’ll civilize the wars you join? Not to put too fine a point on it, Canada, you will not. Murder will not be civilized. It can, however, be ended — if you help us.